December 2012 Year End Housing Market Update - Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

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Blanket Drive Warms Thousands

From the Ladner seniors who fundraised to buy socks to students gathering donations in Richmond, the 18th annual REALTORS Care® Blanket Drive collected blankets and warm clothing to help over 19,000 working poor and homeless people across the Lower Mainland.

Hundreds of real estate offices acted as drop-off locations during the November 26 – December 3 event. Volunteer REALTORS® collected, sorted and delivered thousands of donations to over three-dozen charities from Whistler to Hope.

Of the charities that benefit from the REALTORS Care® Blanket Drive, the Richmond Salvation Army is among those that receive a significant volume. For years, it has received enough donations to help provide warm clothing during the winter for an increasing number of clients.

“Without donations from the Blanket Drive, we would not be able to provide essential clothing and blankets to many families in our community,” said Major Mary Smith, pastor. “Unfortunately, the demand becomes greater each year, especially where children are concerned.”

The Squamish Helping Hands Society organizes a variety of shelter and food programs to assist those in need and is a recipient charity of the Blanket Drive.

“The blanket and clothing donations we get not only help our clients, the act of giving itself recognizes a much deeper understanding of the human need there is in our communities and how important it is for us to take care of each other,” said Maureen Mackell, executive director.

Since 1994, the Blanket Drive has grown to become the largest collection of its kind in the Lower Mainland assisting more than 205,000 people over those years.

Donations come from REALTORS®, their clients, the general public, corporations, retailers, community groups and schools. Everyone works together to make the Blanket Drive a success.

Soure: REBGV - January 11, 2013 http://members.rebgv.org/realtorlink/rebgv/publications/RLzine/RL_jan112013/files/BlanketDrive.html

BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast - Mortgage rates to stay flat until next year

Canadian mortgage rates have held steady since the end of the second quarter, and we anticipate they will continue to do so over the next year. The yield on five-year Government of Canada bonds, a common benchmark for five-year fixed rate mortgages, remains very low and is forecast to rise gradually over the next year.

The last increase in the five-year fixed-rate came when the five-year bond yield was roughly 30 basis points higher than it is today. Given our forecast for bond-yields over the next year, the five-year mortgage rate is unlikely to rise from its current level of 5.24 per cent until early-to-mid 2013.

Moreover, banks and other lenders will likely be in no hurry to raise rates as moderation in the national housing market further intensifies competitive pressures.

The one-year and variable mortgage rates are also likely to stay flat over the next six months while the Bank of Canada remains on the sidelines. We are forecasting that the current one-year rate of 3.1 per cent will prevail until mid-2013 while the variable rate will hold steady at the current Prime lending rate of three per cent.

Economic Outlook

The Canadian economy stumbled in the third quarter of 2012, growing just 0.6 per cent at an annualized rate.

The economy is clearly feeling the effects of still sluggish US economic growth as well as a wider slowdown in the global economy. Canadian exports fell by two per cent last quarter, the largest decline since the 2009 recession. Exports may not fare much better next year as the global economy faces ongoing uncertainty. The US economy is at a fiscal crossroads and will likely see sluggish growth for another year. Much of Europe is mired in either recession or near zero growth and even the Chinese economy appears to be slowing down.

Against this backdrop, the Canadian economy should continue to produce consistent, if underwhelming, growth near two per cent in 2013, before accelerating in 2014.

Interest Rate Outlook

The biggest news out of the Bank of Canada this year had nothing to do with changes in monetary policy, but rather changes in personnel as it was announced that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney would be departing to helm the Bank of England. Some have compared the loss of Carney to the tragic memory of Canada losing Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings in the 1980s. However, like the powerful Edmonton Oiler teams of that decade, the Bank of Canada and the wider population of Canadian economists is rich in talent and replacing Carney with someone equally qualified should not be a problem.

Moreover, monetary policy in Canada is rules based, guided by a legislated inflation control mandate. Therefore, even the loss of a talented policy maker like Carney will likely have little impact on the path of Canadian interest rates.

The outlook for growth and inflation over the next eight quarters suggests that interest rates should start to tick higher around the middle of 2013. However, the Bank has been careful to note that a withdrawal of monetary stimulus will be contingent on a stable global economy as well as the state of household debt burdens. The Bank will likely be cautious in unwinding monetary stimulus if Canadian household debt, which has been growing at a more sustainable rate in the past few quarters, changes direction. We are forecasting that the Bank will leave its overnight rate unchanged through most of 2013 before raising rates by 25 basis points late next year.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association - January 11, 2013 http://members.rebgv.org/realtorlink/rebgv/publications/RLzine/RL_jan112013/files/MortgageRates.html

Prices hold firm as home buyers and sellers conclude 2012 from the sidelines - January 3rd, 2012

The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced below average home sale totals, typical home listing activity and modest declines in home prices in 2012.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2012 reached 25,032, a 22.7 per cent decline from the 32,387 sales recorded in 2011, and an 18.2 per cent decrease from the 30,595 residential sales in 2010. Last year’s home sale total was 25.7 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver declined 2 per cent in 2012 to 58,379 compared to the 59,539 properties listed in 2011. Looking back further, last year’s total represents a 0.6 per cent increase compared to the 58,009 residential properties listed in 2010. Last year’s listing total was 6.1 per cent above the ten-year average for annual MLS® property listings in the region.

"For much of 2012 we saw a collective hesitation on the part of buyers and sellers in the Greater Vancouver housing market. This behavior was reflected in lower than average home sale activity and modest fluctuations in home prices,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,142 in December 2012, a decrease of 31.1 per cent from the 1,658 sales recorded in December 2011 and a 32.3 per cent decline compared to November 2012 when 1,686 home sales occurred.

December sales were 38.4 per cent below the 10-year December sales average of 1,855.

Since reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.8 per cent to $590,800. This represents a 2.3 per cent decline when compared to this time last year.

“We saw home prices come down a bit during the latter half of the year. During the same period, we saw fewer home sales and listings,” Klein said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,380 in December 2012. This represents a 15.3 per cent decline compared to the 1,629 units listed in December 2011 and a 50 per cent decline compared to November 2012 when 2,758 properties were listed.

Sales of detached properties in December 2012 reached 425, a decrease of 32.5 per cent from the 630 detached sales recorded in December 2011, and a 44.7 per cent decrease from the 769 units sold in December 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 2.7 per cent from December 2011 to $904,200. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of a detached property has declined 6.5%.

Sales of apartment properties reached 504 in December 2012, a decline of 34.9 per cent compared to the 774 sales in December 2011, and a decrease of 37.9 per cent compared to the 811 sales in December 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 1.9 per cent from December 2011 to $361,200. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price of an apartment property has declined 12.8%.

Attached property sales in December 2012 totalled 213, a decline of 16.1 per cent compared to the 254 sales in December 2011, and a 33.2 per cent decrease from the 319 attached properties sold in December 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.6 per cent between December 2011 and 2012 to $450,900 

Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price of an attached property has declined 4.4%.

“Activity continues to vary depending on area so it’s important to work with your REALTOR® and other professionals to understand the trends in your area of interest,” Klein said.