Interest rates to rise before end of 2014, governor Mark Carney suggests

by Julian Beltrame on Wednesday, October 31, 2012 6:06am

OTTAWA – Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is suggesting interest rates will likely rise before the end of 2014.

It’s one of the clearest indications Carney has given as to when he might raise the bank’s key benchmark, which has been held at one per cent for more than two years.

Responding to a question in the Commons finance committee Tuesday afternoon, the bank governor said the bank’s current thinking was that monetary policy will need to be tightened before 2015.

Last week, Carney inserted the phrase “over time” to give markets guidance on when the bank’s trendsetting rate might be increased. Tuesday’s response was somewhat more detailed, but still pointed to no immediate plans.

“We have in this projection … some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus over the course of the projection, which runs until the end of 2014,” he said. “In other words in advance of 2015.”

Carney added that whenever he does move, it will be when global and domestic factors dictate. And he reiterated his recent guidance that he will also take into account household debt in his decision.

At the moment, he said the country still needs super-low interest rates to stimulate the economy and create jobs.

Canada may have recovered all the jobs it lost in the recession, and added an additional 380,000, he said, but the economy still has a way to go before returning to what would be considered full employment.

“We are in still in position where there are more Canadians who want to work than are working, and the level of involuntary part-time (workers) is still elevated,” he explained.

“They illustrate a degree of slack that still exist in the labour market, which is one reason our monetary policy continues to be and should be accommodative.”

Most private sector economists have pencilled in late 2013 or early 2014 for the first bank action.

The bank governor was appearing before the committee to explain his latest economic outlook released last week that projected growth of 2.2 per cent for this year, followed by a 2.3 per cent advance in 2013 and 2.4 in 2014.

That is slightly more optimistic than the economists’ consensus estimate handed to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Monday for the government’s fall update projections, which will be released in a few weeks.

Carney continued to blame global factors for most of the drag on the economy. But he said government restraint is also contributing to slower growth, although not as much as some have suggested.

He estimated the public sector will contribute about 0.3 percentage points to growth in 2013 and 2014. That’s about half the historic level and well down from when Ottawa and provincial governments were pumping billions into the economy during the 2008-09 recession and early stages of the recovery.

“So it’s positive but not as much as previously,” he said. Government restraint was a modest 0.2 percentage point constraint in 2012, however, the bank report shows.

Carney even ventured to assess the economic impact of the destruction caused by superstorm Sandy, which early estimates put at $20 billion.

While the economy will take a hit immediately, over the long term needed reconstruction in the eastern U.S. states will largely recoup the losses.

“There are activities that can never be redone, for instance a visit to a restaurant. Then there is restructuring (which creates economic activity). In general, it tends to be a relatively negligible impact over time,” he said.

For the full article and details visit Macleans at http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/10/31/interest-rates-to-rise-before-end-of-2014-governor-mark-carney-suggests/

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Housing Market sees slight changes in October - REBGV, November 2nd, 2012

The Greater Vancouver housing market saw a slight increase in the number of home sales, a slight reduction in the number of listings, and a slight decrease in home prices in October compared to the summer months. With those changes, the sales-to-active-listings ratio increased to 11 per cent in October from 8 per cent in September.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,931 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a 16.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,317 sales in October 2011 and a 27.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,516 home sales in September 2012.

October sales were 28.5 per cent below the 10-year October sales average of 2,700.

“Buyer demand increased slightly in October compared to the previous few months,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president-elect said. “Overall conditions in today’s market remain in favour of buyers, with low interest rates, more choice, and less time pressure in terms of decision-making. This translates into a calmer atmosphere for those looking to buy a home and it places more onus on sellers to ensure their homes are priced to compete in today’s marketplace.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,323 in October. This represents a 1.2 per cent decline compared to October 2011 when 4,374 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and an 18.8 per cent decline compared to the 5,321 new listings in September 2012.

At 17,370, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 12 per cent from this time last year and declined 5.3 per cent compared to September 2012.

Since reaching a peak of $625,100 in May, the MLS Home Price Index® (MLS HPI®) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver declined 3.4 per cent to $603,800 in October. This represents a 0.8 per cent decline compared to last year.

“There’ve been modest price changes since they peaked in the spring. The largest reductions have occurred in the areas and property types that experienced the biggest price increases over the last few years,” Wyant said.

Since hitting a record high in April, the benchmark price of a detached home on the Westside of Vancouver has declined 8.6 per cent while detached homes in Richmond and West Vancouver have seen declines of 6 per cent over the same time period.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 790 in October, a decrease of 18.9 per cent from the 974 detached sales recorded in October 2011, and a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 976 units sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.1 per cent to $927,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 803 in October 2012, a 16.2 per cent decrease compared to the 958 sales in October 2011, and a decrease of 18.4 per cent compared to the 984 sales in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $368,800.

Attached property sales in October 2012 totalled 338, an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 382 sales in October 2011, and a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 377 attached properties sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $457,700.

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